Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4334

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4333, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4334
    20 Oct 2026, 15:13 UTC

    C3

    microglia, braak

    predictionC3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede3456c6b9f1a255a

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.49 p=0.179 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    94bc331f296057316252a34d…
    follows 9db26f037a3b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4334: C3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.