Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

C3

complement C3

translation score 0.46, read 2026-10-20; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.06 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including microglia; strongest in hepatocytes0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket: pegcetacoplan, al-78898a, amy-1010.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
15 Parkinson's trials, 1 stopped0.95
literature
PubMed
185 Parkinson's papers of 70,5050.31
pathways
Reactome
11 pathways; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 4327

Sealed predictions

  1. C3 in microglia, braak+0.11 (p 0.787) → +0.49 (p 0.179)receipt 4334
  2. C3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.20 (p 0.602) → +0.00 (p 1.000)receipt 4335

Swarm cases

receipt 4335: C3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.03, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 4334: C3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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