Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4325

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4324, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4325
    20 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC

    GAL3ST1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGAL3ST1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered00bf5f2ebafb8400

    discovery-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b1fbe7eca89eff0b47b07327…
    follows c50de8adebae…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4325: GAL3ST1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAL3ST1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.