Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4284

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.073). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4283, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4284
    20 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC

    CHM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered79240a8ef45e5ce8

    discovery+0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.073)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e4b654c0f44210624a63c62…
    follows ebb4eeca9a5d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4284: CHM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.