Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4275

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.181). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4274, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4275
    20 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC

    DOCK3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDOCK3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbb7a432bd65f26a6

    discovery+0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.181)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9eb81b2660efdd734b9c14fb…
    follows b2c90ccfc443…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4275: DOCK3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs +0.41 in oligodendrocytes. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOCK3 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DOCK3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured