Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4157

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out -0.01 p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4156, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4157
    20 Oct 2026, 11:11 UTC

    HIP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionHIP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb00e0057cb9d4564

    discovery-0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out -0.01 p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    573a48895b59622d046d62c9…
    follows 4b07994559ed…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4157: HIP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HIP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.