Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3899

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3898, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3899
    20 Oct 2026, 05:29 UTC

    SLC7A10

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC7A10 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f4aae30e82acbb9

    discovery-0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ccebac825d23ce7d4dcbb5de…
    follows 285e484ed9a0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3899: SLC7A10 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.11, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC7A10 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.