Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3888

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.753). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3887, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3888
    20 Oct 2026, 05:13 UTC

    COL9A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL9A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e1f1f64fee1f833

    discovery+0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    replication-0.95 p=9.6e-5 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.753)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c4f5c4990888abe0eda46446…
    follows dc47b75119e8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3888: COL9A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL9A2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.