Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3887

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3886, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3887
    20 Oct 2026, 05:13 UTC

    COL9A2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCOL9A2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd413d69edfca4c0b

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.157 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dc47b75119e811c5808888bf…
    follows ee736dbd5405…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3887: COL9A2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL9A2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.