Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0367

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 366, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0367
    16 Oct 2026, 23:03 UTC

    BMP2K

    microglia, braak

    predictionBMP2K in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6db194f418112d75

    discovery-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    661f31308ac73abef44adb22…
    follows 1ece7b2cc2d9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0367: BMP2K in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMP2K in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.