Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3436

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3435, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3436
    19 Oct 2026, 19:48 UTC

    ABCD2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionABCD2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered955df9bacc0332dd

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bcddd2d131567316a45c9df0…
    follows 5bdbbc731865…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3436: ABCD2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCD2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.