Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3393

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3392, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3393
    19 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC

    STARD9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTARD9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddbf662632de62b21

    discovery-0.33 p=0.389 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4f0ec2c2d3308f17b1a50ae3…
    follows 3b4a71fb9ef0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3393: STARD9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.40 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STARD9 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up STARD9 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.85 p 0.0025 (needs p < 5.4e-4)