Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3392

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3391, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3392
    19 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC

    STARD9

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSTARD9 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcc0d62755fee5988

    discovery-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.155 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3b4a71fb9ef0c126957e147b…
    follows 414239d63b9d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3392: STARD9 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.17. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STARD9 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.