Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3379

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3378, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3379
    19 Oct 2026, 18:39 UTC

    TTPA

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTTPA in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd2258b6a0dc04813

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a1638d76c144f1406d4c5f22…
    follows a2d307b59040…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3379: TTPA in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.66 (p 0.0026, n 18) vs +0.16 in astrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTPA in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TTPA · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 5.5e-4)