Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3290

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3289, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3290
    19 Oct 2026, 16:41 UTC

    CPT1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCPT1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c4ffec7c2da810f

    discovery-0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    53413a7b09c8f5a895cef9c7…
    follows c57432f708d6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3290: CPT1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0049, n 18) vs -0.15 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPT1A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CPT1A · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 5.7e-4)