Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3280

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3279, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3280
    19 Oct 2026, 16:27 UTC

    PI4K2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPI4K2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb3499c33c10f170e

    discovery+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    998da15f3f57ef7befe22e39…
    follows c20435ba3796…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3280: PI4K2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.21, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.67 (p 0.0025, n 18) vs +0.10 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PI4K2A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PI4K2A · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured