Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3198

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3197, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3198
    19 Oct 2026, 14:37 UTC

    SLC1A5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC1A5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredec6d68287744216a

    discovery-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d97c26fe6f10b5fc48b9b788…
    follows 686845d3f2ed…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3198: SLC1A5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.09, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18) vs -0.04 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC1A5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC1A5 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.27 p 0.328 (needs p < 6.0e-4)