Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3196

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.84 p 0.0048; held-out -0.08 p 0.842). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3195, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3196
    19 Oct 2026, 14:34 UTC

    PDCD4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDCD4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb7887ccffe31c0fb

    discovery+0.84 p=0.0048 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.84 p 0.0048; held-out -0.08 p 0.842)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    e984640b4178a613022cac3e…
    follows 5727ecf948be…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3196: PDCD4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDCD4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.