Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

PDCD4

programmed cell death 4

translation score 0.51, read 2026-10-19; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.08 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
3 Parkinson's papers of 1,2710.82
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 3190

Sealed predictions

  1. PDCD4 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.84 (p 0.005) → -0.08 (p 0.842)receipt 3196

Swarm cases

receipt 3196: PDCD4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDCD4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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