Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3156

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3155, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3156
    19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

    CERS1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCERS1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9e5805cb024bb0bc

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86b6033a54b45fae1f7a5b37…
    follows 69b20840f5fa…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3156: CERS1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CERS1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.