Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

CERS1

ceramide synthase 1

translation score 0.60, read 2026-10-19; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.08 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced in astrocytes (378 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.36
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 1380.91
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly lysosome and autophagy1.00
proposal for CERS1, translation score 0.60

Knock down and overexpress CERS1 in astrocytes; measure glucocerebrosidase (GCase) activity and LC3-II and p62 flux and α-synuclein uptake and degradation, and dopamine neuron survival in co-culture.

Cell type
astrocytes
Direction
Both arms: public data does not say which way helps.
Molecular readout
glucocerebrosidase (GCase) activity and LC3-II and p62 flux
Functional readout
α-synuclein uptake and degradation, and dopamine neuron survival in co-culture
Rule-out
If neither arm moves glucocerebrosidase (GCase) activity by 20% or more against non-targeting and empty-vector controls, across three independent differentiations, the hypothesis is wrong.
Lab request
CRISPRi knockdown and lentiviral overexpression of CERS1 in iPSC-derived midbrain astrocytes; n = 3 differentiations; readouts: glucocerebrosidase (GCase) activity and LC3-II and p62 flux; α-synuclein uptake and degradation, and dopamine neuron survival in co-culture. Controls: non-targeting guide, empty vector. About 8 to 10 weeks, most of it differentiation.

Sealed predictions

  1. CERS1 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.46 (p 0.209) → +0.10 (p 0.790)receipt 3157
  2. CERS1 in astrocytes, braak+0.08 (p 0.838) → -0.37 (p 0.329)receipt 3156

Swarm cases

receipt 3157: CERS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CERS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 3156: CERS1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CERS1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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