Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2966

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.476). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2965, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2966
    19 Oct 2026, 09:23 UTC

    TENM4

    microglia, braak

    predictionTENM4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1dd8314f68f61b8b

    discovery-0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.476)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e2de34ac338c1baa75c7c2d3…
    follows 06d07e44d3f3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2966: TENM4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TENM4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.