Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2848

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.814). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2847, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2848
    19 Oct 2026, 06:38 UTC

    PGP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPGP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56b2f092672ce2f4

    discovery+0.09 p=0.814 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.814)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f9dce47bf73eb2cc99a2b57…
    follows 561238241f14…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2848: PGP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PGP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.