Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2514

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2513, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2514
    18 Oct 2026, 23:42 UTC

    S1PR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionS1PR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4ad93242bb2ee72a

    discovery+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    52c97ba746d566da05f7b878…
    follows 9515bdfa64ed…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2514: S1PR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.00, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for S1PR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.