Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0243

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.574). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 242, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0243
    16 Oct 2026, 20:04 UTC

    TGFBR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTGFBR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered102383c55d4566c3

    discovery+0.22 p=0.574 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.574)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    adcfb6e74c9726737682c03c…
    follows 36af9d990e55…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0243: TGFBR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.817, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.667, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.817, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGFBR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.