Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0242

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 241, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0242
    16 Oct 2026, 20:04 UTC

    TGFBR2

    microglia, braak

    predictionTGFBR2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52a79bea4a3fe4cf

    discovery+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    36af9d990e55efc90b29af32…
    follows 6574cd293903…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0242: TGFBR2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGFBR2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.