Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out -0.31 p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2271
    18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC

    B3GNT3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionB3GNT3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede5dc6ab69f33e085

    discovery-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out -0.31 p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    036cfe2ab87e54a6abfdbae8…
    follows 5ee673e0d78f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2271: B3GNT3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B3GNT3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.