Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2249

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2248, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2249
    18 Oct 2026, 17:41 UTC

    PDGFRB

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPDGFRB in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered08b3e5b9066f6b7f

    discovery+0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ac6e88890d2b18f820014d09…
    follows f53feb8cd9a4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2249: PDGFRB in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDGFRB in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.