Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2245

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.11 p 0.775). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2244, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2245
    18 Oct 2026, 17:36 UTC

    PLEKHM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLEKHM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd6134de58fcfb3b2

    discovery-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.11 p 0.775)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    47b664969fea60057d8ce012…
    follows 71a6688066c0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2245: PLEKHM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLEKHM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.