Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2224

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2223, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2224
    18 Oct 2026, 17:06 UTC

    BSN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBSN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52ad103f7af0a714

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    272d75e16f2ac9fa6017918d…
    follows eee70559938d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2224: BSN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BSN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.