Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2215

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.146). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2214, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2215
    18 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    ELMO1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionELMO1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered072b3bb2af193a93

    discovery+0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.146)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b8a672debaa1fd699de9cf2c…
    follows 8a568a0ee690…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2215: ELMO1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELMO1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.