Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2175

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2174, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2175
    18 Oct 2026, 15:57 UTC

    TARDBP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTARDBP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredac28e0e12ec8f2fd

    discovery-0.33 p=0.389 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    141b8e0969fbe95487159126…
    follows c349320a2eca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2175: TARDBP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.14, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TARDBP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.