Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2106

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2105, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2106
    18 Oct 2026, 14:12 UTC

    PIEZO1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPIEZO1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8836108a59fc8f7

    discovery-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d470ddaf5102c29bcbe498a9…
    follows 60f5ef24536d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2106: PIEZO1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIEZO1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.