Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2074

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2073, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2074
    18 Oct 2026, 13:28 UTC

    RBMS3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRBMS3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2aba13a12107593

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86bab01a73677e8c471ab932…
    follows 561fa91bc36e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2074: RBMS3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.13, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RBMS3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.