Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2030

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2029, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2030
    18 Oct 2026, 12:22 UTC

    BMPR1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBMPR1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb7f2684509aa18d7

    discovery+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1cd177b70ea9bd6b28f1ef5e…
    follows 34aaef46ac9e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2030: BMPR1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs +0.32 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMPR1A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up BMPR1A · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.05 p 0.859 (needs p < 7.5e-4)