Six readers
| reader | found | score |
|---|---|---|
| genetics Open Targets | no genetic evidence; overall 0.20 from other evidence | 0.00 |
| cell type Human Protein Atlas | expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells | 0.40 |
| chemistry Open Targets | a small-molecule pocket: eptotermin alfa, dibotermin alfa | 0.60 |
| trials ClinicalTrials.gov | no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field | 1.00 |
| literature PubMed | no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet | 1.00 |
| pathways Reactome | 1 pathway; mostly growth signalling | 0.60 |
No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2023
Sealed predictions
- BMPR1A in dopamine neurons, braak+0.21 (p 0.581) → +0.42 (p 0.266)receipt 2030
Swarm cases
receipt 2030: BMPR1A in dopamine neurons, braak
- power
- full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
- confounder
- adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). could be the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
- cell type
- strongest in OPCs: +0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs +0.32 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
- axis
- no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMPR1A in dopamine neurons.
follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up BMPR1A · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.05 p 0.859 (needs p < 7.5e-4)
Receipts
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