Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0152

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.02, p 0.938). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 151, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0152
    16 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC

    STK39

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionSTK39 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered6ed54a986e87f144

    discovery+0.02 p=0.938 n=24

    replication-0.43 p=0.089 n=31

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.02, p 0.938)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2aa1b589163a33e8006e7810…
    follows 4a7ca803b429…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0152: STK39 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.207, n 55), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.25 (p 0.199, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.283, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.374, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
braak beats resilience for STK39 in dopamine neurons: +0.38 (p 3.5e-4, n 84). proposing braak.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.