Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0151

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.52 p 3.6e-4; held-out +0.17 p 0.286). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 150, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0151
    16 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC

    STK39

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTK39 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede3507be0dbe9505d

    discovery+0.52 p=3.6e-4 n=42

    replication+0.17 p=0.286 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.52 p 3.6e-4; held-out +0.17 p 0.286)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4a7ca803b4297caf8d831d8d…
    follows 4d9366f2e345…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0151: STK39 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 3.5e-4, n 84), 95% CI +0.18 to +0.55. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.36 (p 8.6e-4, n 84). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.649, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.0047, n 75). robust.
cell type
strongest in GABA neurons: -0.55 (p 5.0e-8, n 84) vs +0.38 in dopamine neurons. proposing GABA neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STK39 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up STK39 · GABA neurons · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.50 p 2.8e-6 (needs p < 0.0021)