Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1508

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.039; held-out -0.39 p 0.298). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1507, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1508
    18 Oct 2026, 00:26 UTC

    PPP1R3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP1R3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcd96a053689a8e96

    discovery-0.69 p=0.039 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.298 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.039; held-out -0.39 p 0.298)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    e21c75592a5fe1bf613919b1…
    follows d525dd171889…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1508: PPP1R3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.00. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1R3B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.