Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12512

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12511, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12512
    28 Oct 2026, 01:49 UTC

    ST8SIA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionST8SIA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered44a1f1ec3acdfb8a

    discovery+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.535 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a875fe2d0bb853f5f81b5c24…
    follows c2753c18ea67…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12512: ST8SIA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST8SIA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.