Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12272

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12271, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12272
    27 Oct 2026, 20:26 UTC

    PABPN1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPABPN1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered575019a64f0b10e5

    discovery-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8236d5150c445b683684a26e…
    follows 2d5da37f1f95…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12272: PABPN1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.08, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PABPN1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.