Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11630

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11629, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11630
    27 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC

    SFMBT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSFMBT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7093e567523cd7e

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43a712b20ba47e6c6e9a2059…
    follows 980ac9b62544…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11630: SFMBT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SFMBT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.