Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11393

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11392, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11393
    27 Oct 2026, 01:28 UTC

    COL5A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL5A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8eff6d922e933e8d

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    17d395020860e75a2bfee2da…
    follows 8c613c16b6ee…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11393: COL5A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL5A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.