Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11344

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.91 p 5.7e-4; held-out -0.47 p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11343, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11344
    27 Oct 2026, 00:22 UTC

    MRAS

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMRAS in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15f7f12fed0c74f4

    discovery-0.91 p=5.7e-4 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.91 p 5.7e-4; held-out -0.47 p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    05870237ae0b99bd3490da83…
    follows 03eeaee69ab8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11347 (2026-10-27 00:25 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11344: MRAS in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRAS in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.