Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11343

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11342, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11343
    27 Oct 2026, 00:19 UTC

    HAND1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHAND1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e29353ad8b75ae2

    discovery-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    03eeaee69ab83897f9cfe5e1…
    follows 90fa2ec5426f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11347 (2026-10-27 00:25 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11343: HAND1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HAND1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.