Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11139

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.725). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11138, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11139
    26 Oct 2026, 19:31 UTC

    BAALC

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionBAALC in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3e119969191d6316

    discovery-0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.725)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7c2f07848920a60aced07280…
    follows 799478c086fd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11157 (2026-10-26 19:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11139: BAALC in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.02, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BAALC in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.