Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11069

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11068, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11069
    26 Oct 2026, 17:52 UTC

    TMEM255A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM255A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3dbc57e287ded680

    discovery-0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b754f1f44a68fd8406e457db…
    follows 3cac9933526d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11069: TMEM255A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM255A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.