Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11068

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.82 p 0.0064; held-out -0.84 p 0.0048). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11067, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11068
    26 Oct 2026, 17:52 UTC

    TMEM255A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM255A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered06c0f55b1286f3fb

    discovery+0.82 p=0.0064 n=9

    replication-0.84 p=0.0048 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.82 p 0.0064; held-out -0.84 p 0.0048)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    3cac9933526de3a57f3c2230…
    follows 3efe2c3294ef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11068: TMEM255A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM255A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.