Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11057

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.026; held-out +0.20 p 0.601). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11056, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11057
    26 Oct 2026, 17:38 UTC

    BCL11B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCL11B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7874a0428b688bec

    discovery-0.73 p=0.026 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.601 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.026; held-out +0.20 p 0.601)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c41073d0fe5392f65aaa4883…
    follows 071ef16826fc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11057: BCL11B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18) vs -0.27 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCL11B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up BCL11B · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 2.0e-4)