Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0110

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.726). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 109, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0110
    16 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC

    ADRB1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionADRB1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered37efd9922ef32d3f

    discovery-0.06 p=0.726 n=42

    replication-0.22 p=0.168 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.726)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e3e4875354cde329cea0a710…
    follows 4a1e7af042ac…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0110: ADRB1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.290, n 84), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.10. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.12 (p 0.269, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.26 (p 0.016); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.435, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.274, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADRB1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.